Rate Lock Advisory

Tuesday, September 8th

Tuesday’s bond market has opened slightly in negative territory following an upward move in oil prices and escalating military action in the Middle East. The same news has stocks in selling mode, pushing the Dow lower by 625 points and the Nasdaq down 132 points. The bond market is currently down only 1/32 (4.79%), but afternoon weakness Friday may cause a modest increase in this morning’s mortgage rates. The financial and mortgage markets were closed yesterday for the Labor Day holiday.

1/32

Bonds

30 yr - 4.79%

625

Dow

52,788

132

NASDAQ

26,374

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Unknown

Iran War Headlines

There is no relevant economic data set for release today or tomorrow. This weekend’s geopolitical news is hitting stocks as we would expect. However, bonds are holding up fairly well considering that oil is now nearing that critical threshold of $100 a barrel. We may see afternoon weakness creep into trading this afternoon, so don’t be surprised to see an intraday increase in rates before the end of the day.

High

Unknown

None

The rest of the week brings us four monthly economic reports, along with two Treasury auctions that may come into play during afternoon trading. Two of the economic releases are labeled highly important since they will help us gauge inflationary metrics in the economy. The Fed is now in their mandatory quiet period ahead of next week's FOMC meeting, so we won’t hear much from individual members until then. Despite the relatively low number of reports on this week’s calendar, we still should see plenty of movement in the markets and mortgage rates.

Medium

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

Activities begin tomorrow afternoon when the results of the 10-year Treasury Note auction are announced at 1:00 PM ET. This auction will give us a good indication of investor appetite for long-term debt, which is relevant because mortgage rates are based on long-term securities. If it draws a strong demand from investors, we could see bonds improve during afternoon trading tomorrow, possibly leading to lower mortgage rates. On the other hand, a lackluster interest in the securities may very well lead to an upward revision in rates.

High

Unknown

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Overall, Friday is the most important day of the week for rates due to the influence the Consumer Price Index (CPI) carries in the markets, but surprises in Thursday's Producer Price Index could create a big move in the markets also. The best candidate for calmest day is tomorrow. We should see the biggest changes in rates Thursday and/or Friday with other days likely to yield minor revisions in pricing. Keep an eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future since they can get active without warning.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.