Rate Lock Advisory

Wednesday, September 9th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following expanding military action in the Middle East that now has pushed a key oil price above $100 a barrel. Stocks are showing more noticeable losses with the Dow down 414 points and the Nasdaq down 124 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32 (4.80%), which with yesterday’s afternoon weakness should cause an increase in this morning’s mortgage pricing of approximately .250 of a discount point.

4/32

Bonds

30 yr - 4.80%

414

Dow

52,371

124

NASDAQ

26,296

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

There is no relevant economic data set for release today, but we will get the results of the 10-year Treasury Note auction at 1:00 PM ET. Good news for mortgage rates would be the results showing there was a strong demand from investors because it would mean investors still have an appetite for long-term securities and rates are based on similar debt. However, if the current inflation situation causes investors to stay away from these securities, we could see a negative reaction this afternoon that leads to an upward revision in mortgage pricing before the end of the day.

High

Unknown

Producer Price Index (PPI)

Tomorrow has three pieces of economic data that we will be watching, including one of the two highly influential inflation readings. First up will be the release of August's Producer Price Index (PPI) at 8:30 AM ET. The PPI measures inflationary pressures at the wholesale level of the economy and can have a significant impact on the financial and mortgage markets. There are two readings in the report- the overall and core data. Core figures will draw more attention as they exclude more volatile food and energy prices. Current forecasts show a 0.4% rise in the monthly overall reading with core data up 0.3%. On an annual basis, they both are expected to rise noticeably from July’s pace. The weaker the readings, especially year-over-year, the better the news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Medium

Unknown

Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

Also early tomorrow morning will be the release of last week’s unemployment figures that are expected to show 205,000 new claims for jobless benefits were made. This would be a small decline from the previous week’s 206,000. Rising claims are a sign of weakness in the employment sector, meaning good news for bonds and mortgage rates would be a larger than predicted number.

Medium

Unknown

Existing Home Sales from National Assoc of Realtors

Tomorrow morning will also bring us August's Existing Home Sales report from the National Association of Realtors, but at 10:00 AM ET. They are expected to announce a small decline in home resales, pointing to weakness in the housing sector. A soft housing sector makes broader economic growth more difficult. Therefore, good news for mortgage rates would be a large drop in sales.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.