Rate Lock Advisory

Friday, August 7th

Friday’s bond market has opened well in positive territory following mostly favorable results for this morning’s major economic release. Stocks are showing gains also because the weaker economic data may prevent the Fed from raising short-term rates in the immediate future. The Dow is up 67 points while the Nasdaq is up 132 points. The bond market is currently up 8/32 (4.64%), but weakness late yesterday should prevent a noticeable improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates. At best, some lenders may show rates modestly lower than Thursday’s early pricing. If you did see an intraday revision yesterday, you should see an improvement this morning of about the same size.

8/32

Bonds

30 yr - 4.64%

67

Dow

53,952

132

NASDAQ

26,480

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

High

Positive

Employment Situation

The big news came from July’s Employment report that was posted at 8:30 AM. It revealed that the economy lost 28,000 jobs last month instead of adding 85,000 like analysts were expecting. More good news came in downward revisions to the June and May payroll numbers that subtracted 103,000 jobs from the year-to-date total and the average earnings reading that rose only 0.1% when forecasts had it at up 0.3%. These numbers are certainly bond-friendly and raise questions about the stability of the employment sector.

Medium

Negative

Employment Situation

Offsetting the good news in this morning’s report somewhat was an unexpected decline in the unemployment rate. July’s rate stood at 4.1%, down slightly from June’s 4.2%. It was widely expected that July’s rate would be unchanged. Fortunately for mortgage shoppers, the payroll number and earnings reading are drawing much more attention to drive this morning’s bond gains. A softening employment sector makes it harder for the Fed to justify raising key short-term interest rates because higher rates are intended to slow the economy, which would have a further negative impact on employment also.

High

Unknown

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Next week will be another busy one for the financial and mortgage markets with several highly important economic reports scheduled for release, including two inflation indexes and a key measure of consumer spending. In addition to the data, there are also a couple of long-term Treasury auctions that may affect rates during afternoon trading midweek. Monday has nothing of importance scheduled that is likely to affect rates, leaving weekend headlines to drive trading. Look for details on all of next week’s activities in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.