Monday, January 26th
Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory despite stronger than expected manufacturing data. Stocks are starting the week with gains of 170 points in the Dow and 101 in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently up 5/32 (4.20%), which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.
5/32
Bonds
30 yr - 4.20%
170
Dow
49,269
101
NASDAQ
23,602
Trailing 90 Days - National Average
Low
Negative
The week’s calendar began late this morning with the release of November’s Durable Goods Orders report that showed new orders for big-ticket products jumped 5.3% that month. This was stronger than the 3.7% rise that was expected, but this data is known to be quite volatile from month-to-month. Therefore, the variance from expectations isn’t nearly as relevant as it would be if it came in many other reports. A secondary reading that excludes more costly transportation-related orders (airplanes) rose 0.5% when it was predicted to be up 0.3%. These readings are a sign of manufacturing strength that would normally be unfavorable for bonds and mortgage rates. The age of this data is likely preventing a reaction in the bond market this morning.
High
Unknown
The rest of the week has four more relevant monthly and quarterly economic reports coming, along with two Treasury auctions, a slew of corporate earnings announcements and the first FOMC meeting of the year. One of those reports is considered to be highly important to the markets, but comes at the end of the week.
Medium
Unknown
Tomorrow has one of those four economic reports scheduled. January's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is set to be posted by the Conference Board at 10:00 AM ET. The CCI is an indicator of consumer sentiment about their own financial conditions, which is important because waning confidence is a sign that consumers are less willing to make large purchases in the near future. Since consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy and bonds tend to thrive in weaker economic conditions, bond traders are very attentive to related data. Analysts are expecting to see an increase from December's 89.1 reading, indicating consumers are more likely to spend this month than last month. Good news for rates would be a decline in confidence.
Medium
Unknown
We also have a 5-year Treasury Note auction taking place tomorrow. These sales of shorter-term securities don’t usually have a strong impact on mortgage pricing because rates are based on long-term debt. That said, an overly strong or weak sale can have an impact on the broader bonds market. Auctions that draw a strong demand from investors are considered to be good news for mortgage rates. If we see a reaction tomorrow, it will be shortly after the sale results are made available at 1:00 PM ET.
Medium
Unknown
Bellwether names such as Apple, Meta (Facebook), Microsoft and Tesla are just a few of the publicly-traded companies that are expected to post earnings this week. Generally speaking, disappointing corporate earnings traditionally hurt stocks and may lead to lower mortgage rates as investors move funds into bonds. This week's late economic data and FOMC meeting will be much more of a driving factor for mortgage rates than earnings news. However, these earnings may have an impact any day.
High
Unknown
Overall, Wednesday is the key day of the week for rates due to the FOMC meeting, but we may see a big move if Friday’s wholesale inflation data (PPI) shows a surprise. Thursday is a good candidate for calmest day as long as the FOMC meeting doesn’t cause a significant reaction in the markets that would carry into Thursday’s session. The possible government shutdown is more likely to be an issue later in the week than earlier, if there is a response in the markets at all. Due to the elevated possibility of seeing multiple days with a noticeable change in rates, it would be prudent to keep an eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.