Tuesday, June 30th
Tuesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory as traders await this week’s important data. Stocks are showing early gains with the Dow up 20 points and the Nasdaq up 227 points. The bond market is currently down 6/32 (4.40%), which should cause an increase in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .125 of a discount point.
6/32
Bonds
30 yr - 4.40%
20
Dow
52,202
227
NASDAQ
26,047
Trailing 90 Days - National Average
Medium
Negative
The Conference Board announced late this morning that their June Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) stood at 91.2. This was below expectations, but a sizable downward revision to May’s reading is skewing June’s change. May’s reading was revised from 93.1 to 90.6, meaning surveyed consumers felt less confident in their financial situations last month than previously thought. So, while June’s reading is lower than expected, it was still an increase from May. The month over month increase is a sign that consumers are more likely to spend this month than they were last month. Since consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy, we have to label the report as unfavorable for bonds and mortgage rates even though it didn’t come as surprise.
Medium
Unknown
Tomorrow brings us the release of two reports and some Fed talk, starting with June's ADP Employment report at 8:15 AM ET. This report predicts changes in private-sector jobs, using the company's clients that use them for payroll processing as a base. While it does draw attention, it is my opinion that it is overrated and is not a true reflection of the broader employment picture. It also is known to not be accurate in predicting results of the monthly government report that follows a couple days later. Still, because we sometimes see a noticeable reaction to the report, it is on this week's calendar. It is expected to show approximately 115,000 private sector jobs were added during the month. Bond traders would prefer to see a much smaller number.
Medium
Unknown
Fed Chairman Warsh will be participating in a discussion at a European Central Bank forum in Portugal tomorrow. The topic of the discussion is related to monetary policy, so we could hear something that the markets find highly relevant and react accordingly. The event is scheduled to start at 9:00 AM ET, meaning we will know if there is a reaction by the time tomorrow’s commentary report is posted.
High
Unknown
June's manufacturing index from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) will be tomorrow’s second release. This index measures manufacturer sentiment by surveying trade executives on current business conditions. May's reading that was posted last month came in at 54.0. Market participants are expecting a reading of 53.8, indicating slightly softer activity in the manufacturing sector. Good news for the bond market and mortgage rates would be a noticeably lower reading. This report carries an elevated importance level and is watched closely, partly because it is the first piece of data that tracks the previous month's activity each month.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.