Monday, September 21th
Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory as oil prices pullback and no major war headlines from the Middle East allow for a recovery of some of last week’s losses. Stocks are starting the new week with gains of 128 points in the Dow and 326 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently up 6/32 (4.97%), which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.
6/32
Bonds
30 yr - 4.97%
128
Dow
51,810
326
NASDAQ
26,849
Trailing 90 Days - National Average
Medium
Positive
There is no relevant economic data set for release today, leaving bond traders to focus on lower oil prices that ease inflation concerns a little. Bonds are less appealing to investors when inflation is rising because it erodes the value of their future fixed interest payments. This is why we see bond yields and mortgage rates move higher when headlines indicate inflation is rising instead of declining. As oil prices decline, we should see mortgage rates improve also.
Medium
Unknown
Tomorrow also lacks any relevant economic data for the markets to digest. The first scheduled activity is the 5-year Treasury Note auction results at 1:00 PM ET Wednesday. The rest of week brings us the release of only three monthly economic reports and none of them are considered to be a major release. In addition to the data there are also a couple of Treasury auctions and a summit with U.S. and China taking place. The most influential scheduled events start the latter days, meaning we should see the most movement in rates later in the week.
---
Unknown
Overall, no day stands out as the most important for mortgage rates with no key data scheduled for release. It is unclear what the U.S. – China summit may yield, particularly that the bond market may be interested in, so it is a wild card. Middle East headlines and oil price movement may also come into play, especially today and tomorrow when nothing else is scheduled. While it doesn’t appear that this week is going to be overly active in terms of market and mortgage rates changes, it still is possible for them to get volatile without notice. Therefore, it would be wise to keep an eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate and closing soon.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.