Monday, February 23th
Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory as stocks post tariff-related losses, shifting funds into bonds this morning. The Dow is down 620 points while the Nasdaq has lost 159 points. The bond market is currently up 8/32 (4.05%), which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.
8/32
Bonds
30 yr - 4.05%
620
Dow
49,005
159
NASDAQ
22,726
Trailing 90 Days - National Average
Low
Neutral
This morning’s early speech by Federal Reserve Governor Waller created a couple of headlines, but nothing that was a huge surprise. The most relevant was him saying he would support a decision of leaving key short-term interest rates unchanged at next month’s FOMC meeting if February’s employment data again showed the sector has stabilized. January’s Employment report showed stronger than predicted results in all three of the major headline readings that we rely on most. This is important because Gov Waller has been voting for lower rates due to fears the employment sector was crumbling. It doesn’t change what the Fed is likely to do next month, which is to leave key rates at their current levels.
Medium
Positive
December’s Factory Orders report was posted late this morning, revealing a 0.7% decline in new orders at U.S. factories for both durable and non-durable goods. This decline contradicts forecasts of an increase in new orders, indicating weakness in the manufacturing sector. Accordingly, we can label the data good news for rates even though the report has had very little contribution to this morning’s bond gains.
Medium
Unknown
Tomorrow morning brings us another moderately important economic release when February's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is posted at 10:00 AM ET. The Conference Board is expected to announce a reading of 87.3, up from January’s 84.5. The increase would mean surveyed consumers feel better about their finances this month than they did last month and are more likely to spend. This is problematic for the bond market and mortgage rates because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Good news for rates would be an unexpected decline in the index.
High
Unknown
Overall, Friday is likely to be the most active day for rates because of the importance the Producer Price Index carries in the markets. The calmest day may be Wednesday unless something unexpected happens with the State of the Union speech tomorrow night. Despite a very busy calendar last week, there were a couple days that mortgage rates barely budged from the previous day. Don’t be surprised to see that happen again more than one day this week with a relatively light schedule of relevant events.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.